Micron Q1 Earnings Preview: Analyst Estimates and Positioning for 2025

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) is preparing to announce its first-quarter financial results after the market closes on Wednesday. The company, based in Boise, Idaho, is hoping to replicate the recent success of Broadcom, which saw a rise in its share price following its quarterly earnings report.

Analysts anticipate that Micron will report first-quarter revenue of $8.72 billion, a significant increase from the $4.73 billion reported in the same quarter last year, as noted by data from Benzinga Pro.

Micron has a track record of surpassing analyst revenue estimates, achieving this feat in six consecutive quarters and in seven of the last ten quarters overall.

For earnings per share, analysts expect a figure of $1.76 for the first quarter, a noteworthy recovery from the loss of 95 cents per share reported in the previous year’s first quarter. The company has also consistently beaten earnings per share estimates in three straight quarters, and seven out of ten overall.

The guidance provided by Micron projects first-quarter revenue to fall between $8.5 billion and $8.9 billion, with earnings per share expected to be between $1.66 and $1.82.

Analyst Insights

In a recent note to investors, Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson expressed confidence that Micron's first-quarter results will either meet or exceed analyst expectations. He noted that the company has benefited from favorable pricing and a positive product mix in the first quarter.

Despite potential challenges in the second quarter, Bryson believes that these pressures could be offset by product mix adjustments, suggesting that the risk to current forward estimates might be moderate.

Looking beyond the second quarter, he anticipates a strong second half of the fiscal year due to what he terms "favorable memory economics." He stated, "Sentiment on memory was extremely negative, creating room for a potential sharp move upwards in the stock should Micron's results and guidance align with expectations."

Additionally, improvements in product mix and indications of a normalization in memory inventory could further benefit Micron in the future.

"We don't have a concrete view on Micron into the print, but believe the company is well positioned heading into 2025," Bryson concluded.

Stifel has also maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $135 ahead of the earnings report.

Sector Focus and Government Support

Micron's upcoming report is especially significant amid a spotlight on the semiconductor sector in 2024. Notably, Nvidia shares have declined recently, while Broadcom's rise post-earnings has brought attention back to the industry.

Micron shares recently gained traction following a $6.1 billion investment announced by the White House, aimed at developing new advanced memory chip facilities. This investment reflects the broader government strategy to bolster the semiconductor industry in the U.S. to support domestic jobs and reduce reliance on imports.

Investors and analysts are expected to scrutinize Wednesday's report for insights into government support and perspectives on the implications of the upcoming White House administration starting in 2025.

The guidance provided for the company's next fiscal year will also serve as a focal point for investors and analysts as they assess future performance.

Micron's CEO Sanjay Mehrota previously remarked, "We are entering fiscal 2025 with the best competitive positioning in Micron's history. We forecast record revenue in fiscal Q1 and significant improvements in profitability for fiscal 2025." Investors will be eager to hear similar optimistic updates in the upcoming earnings announcement.

Current Market Position

As of Tuesday, Micron's stock has experienced a slight increase of 1%, reaching $108.82. This places it within a 52-week trading range of $78.63 to $157.54, demonstrating a strong year-to-date performance with a 32% rise in 2024.

Micron, Earnings, Semiconductors