Economy

Dollar Declines Ahead of Employment Report Release

Published March 6, 2025

The US dollar is currently experiencing a decline as it faces pressures from various economic factors. Economic growth in the United States appears to be slowing down, and the recent imposition of tariffs on goods imported from China and Canada has further exacerbated the situation. This has led to a widespread sell-off of the dollar as investors express disappointment over some of the initial executive orders issued by the Trump administration.

USD/JPY Analysis

At the beginning of the week, the USD/JPY currency pair saw sellers successfully breach a significant support level, trading between 149.00 and 148.60. This range had not been broken since November of the previous year. After this downward movement, the price rebounded and made an attempt to retest the psychological barrier at 150.00.

From a technical perspective, the analysis of USD/JPY suggests a likelihood of continuation in the downtrend, aiming towards levels around 147.00 to 146.80. A bearish engulfing pattern is forming on the daily chart, indicating potential for further declines. To dismiss the bearish outlook, the pair needs to stabilize above the resistance levels of 150.60 to 150.00.

In the upcoming trading sessions, several key events could impact USD/JPY pricing, including:

  • Today at 16:30 (GMT+2): US initial jobless claims
  • Today at 16:30 (GMT+2): US non-farm productivity
  • Today at 21:00 (GMT+2): GDPNow indicator from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
  • Today at 23:30 (GMT+2): Speech by FOMC member C. Waller

USD/CAD Trends

In the case of USD/CAD, the new tariffs on goods from Canada introduced recently have caused the currency pair to revert towards the range of 1.4550 to 1.4500. Dollar buyers struggled to surpass this range, and a subsequent retreat from 1.4550 resulted in the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern. The technical outlook for USD/CAD suggests a potential correction downwards toward the levels of 1.4230 to 1.4170. However, if the pair can establish itself firmly above 1.4480, it could resume its upward trend.

Key events to monitor as the week progresses include:

  • Today at 16:30 (GMT+2): Canada’s trade balance
  • Today at 17:00 (GMT+2): Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index for Canada
  • Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2): US average hourly earnings
  • Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2): Canada’s employment change

As the dollar continues to test new lows, it is important for traders to stay updated on these economic indicators and reports that could significantly influence currency markets.

dollar, employment, currency