Is Nvidia’s Jensen Huang Right About Quantum Computing?

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently made headlines with his assertion at the 2025 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas that "+Very useful quantum computers are still a few decades away.+" His statement sparked significant discussion and concern within the quantum computing community, leading to substantial drops in share prices for notable companies like D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and IonQ, with declines ranging from 30 to 50 percent.

In response to Huang's comments, industry leaders jumped in to defend the quantum sector. Alan Baratz, CEO of D-Wave, contested Huang’s view, stating, "+Jensen Huang has a misunderstanding of quantum. He is ‘dead wrong’ about D-Wave.+” He highlighted that there are multiple approaches to developing quantum computers, pointing to D-Wave's systems, which currently tackle complex scientific problems that traditional supercomputers cannot. For instance, the Canadian company Pattison Food Group successfully reduced an 80-hour scheduling task to just 15 hours using D-Wave’s technology. Meanwhile, NTT DOCOMO, Japan’s largest telecom, dramatically decreased its network resource optimization time from 27 hours to 40 seconds using the same technology.

Other leaders in the quantum field also touted their revenue and profit forecasts. D-Wave reported a remarkable 120% increase in sales for 2024 compared to the previous year. IonQ, another significant player in the quantum hardware market, anticipates reaching profitability on over $1 billion in sales by 2030, according to CEO Peter Chapman.

Understanding Quantum Computing

At its core, quantum computing relies on qubits, which are units of data that can exist in multiple states simultaneously. This unique ability allows quantum computers to perform calculations far quicker than even the most advanced supercomputers. A case in point is Google’s Willow chip, which reportedly solved a complex benchmark problem in just five minutes—something that would take the fastest supercomputer an unfathomable 10 septillion years to accomplish, according to Google.

However, it’s important to note that not all quantum computing challenges are solved yet. Nick Harris, CEO of Lightmatter, explained that quantum systems are sensitive to environmental noise that can interfere with their calculations. He indicated that the breakthroughs showcased by Google’s Willow chip may not be applicable across all types of quantum hardware, and scaling quantum technology remains a formidable hurdle.

Other existing challenges in quantum computing include enhancing qubit coherence and connectivity while also improving fidelity. Harris noted, "+Even with error correction, individual qubit operations still have a non-zero error rate. Reducing these errors is crucial for reliable computation.+"

Despite the challenges, the quantum computing market is projected to boom, with estimates suggesting it could reach $2 trillion by 2035, as reported by McKinsey & Company. Huang’s comments, however, seem to temper some of that optimism, as he predicts a 15 to 30-year timeline before quantum computing becomes commercially viable. Daniela Herrmann, co-founder of Dynex, a quantum-as-a-service company, partially agrees with Huang, stating that while his timelines highlight the challenges ahead, they may underplay the progress made in quantum-inspired applications. She also commented that Huang's statements could redirect attention to Nvidia's own quantum initiatives, like CUDA-Q, which have yet to demonstrate their effectiveness on a grand scale.

Significant Advances in the Quantum Field

Companies like Phasecraft, Zapata Computing, and Algorithmiq are advancing the development of algorithms that can harness the current limitations of available quantum hardware. In addition, research institutions such as the University of Chicago and Stanford University are making strides in quantum computation optimization, particularly in optical computing and its applications in quantum technologies.

Advanced AI tasks that previously required a lot of computational power are now being completed with significantly less overhead—about 90% less, according to Herrmann.

Anders Indset, the chairman of Njordis Group, a venture capital firm focused on quantum technology, shared a different view on the market response to Huang’s statements. He remarked that many successful business applications do not necessarily require a universal quantum computer to provide significant advantages. The recent downturn in stock prices may represent a market correction rather than a definitive end to quantum computing's prospects. Indset further speculated that Huang’s comments may be influenced by competition; as Nvidia has vested interests in advancing its own AI and computational technologies. He concluded that while Huang’s cautious perspective reflects the realities facing the sector, history shows that unexpected breakthroughs can happen at any time, especially as the demand for computing power in AI escalates, potentially leading to faster adoption of quantum technologies.

Nvidia, quantum, computing