Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Probability Rises to 64% Despite Trump's Inaction on Crypto

Following the inauguration of President Donald Trump, the likelihood of him implementing a strategic Bitcoin (BTC/USD) reserve in 2025 has gained traction on prediction market Kalshi. The odds have reached a notable 64%, up from 55% at the start of the year and 61% on the day of the inauguration.

This increase in probability suggests that many traders are optimistic about the potential for Bitcoin to become a more formalized part of government financial strategies, despite any immediate moves from Trump.

Current Market Predictions

Other related predictions on Kalshi have also seen notable shifts since the inauguration. The current odds for various cryptocurrency-related questions are presented in the table below:

Kalshi Prediction Markets	Current Odds	Odds On Inauguration Day
Federal crypto regulation this year?	54%	53%
Will a new country buy Bitcoin this year?	85%	76%
Will Bitcoin be legalized in China this year?	15%	21%

Traders' Perspectives

Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger shares his perspective, suggesting that while a strategic Bitcoin reserve is likely, it may not achieve significant levels during Trump’s presidency. He feels that the current administration has only a partial embrace of Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies.

Krueger also pointed out the recent purchase of $47 million worth of Bitcoin by World Liberty Financial as a significant milestone that indicates a positive future for Bitcoin, regardless of any governmental involvement. He confidently stated, "External factors won't derail Bitcoin's trajectory," and expresses hope for a bullish trend in the market by 2025.

Coinbase CEO's Remarks

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, commented on Trump’s excitement regarding Bitcoin adoption. He suggested that Trump aims to be recognized as the first "Bitcoin President." Armstrong also acknowledged the legislative efforts by Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming to establish a Bitcoin reserve.

Armstrong emphasized that governments currently holding gold should also consider Bitcoin as part of their reserves, arguing that a global shift toward adopting a Bitcoin standard seems inevitable.

At present, there are 12 U.S. states actively promoting legislation regarding Bitcoin reserves. The CEO of Marathon Digital is reportedly working to extend these initiatives to all 50 states.

In conclusion, although President Trump has not yet taken significant steps towards creating a Bitcoin reserve, market predictions and sentiments reflect a growing belief in its potential future.

This content was reviewed and edited for clarity.

Bitcoin, Trump, crypto