Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Breaks 12-Year Support as Gold Price Hits Record $3K

On March 14, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below a long-standing support trendline against gold (XAU) that had been in place for over 12 years. This significant technical breach raises concerns for analysts regarding the future trajectory of Bitcoin.

XAU/BTC ratio weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView/NorthStar

Prominent analyst NorthStar indicates that if Bitcoin remains under the gold trendline for even a single week—or even worse, a month—it could signify the end of Bitcoin's 12-year bull run.

With this in mind, many are questioning whether Bitcoin’s bull market is truly over. To gain clarity, it's important to examine the relationship between Bitcoin and gold.

Gold Hits New Record High as Bitcoin's Uptrend Cools

The breakdown of the BTC/XAU ratio coincided with spot gold prices surpassing $3,000 per ounce on the same day, marking a 12.80% increase year to date.

In stark contrast, Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," has seen its value decrease by 11% in 2025.

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD YTD performance chart. Source: TradingView

This contrast in performance reflects the differing net flows into US-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track both Bitcoin and gold.

As of March 14, US-based spot gold ETFs attracted over $6.48 billion in inflows year to date, as reported by the World Gold Council. On a global scale, gold ETFs have welcomed $23.18 billion in total inflows.

Gold ETFs weekly holdings by region. Source: GoldHub.com

Conversely, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows approaching $1.46 billion so far this year, according to analytics from Glassnode.

US Bitcoin ETFs year-to-date net flows. Source: Glassnode

The disparity in these trends highlights the increasing macroeconomic uncertainties and a shift in investor sentiment towards risk-averse strategies. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies have significantly impacted this sentiment, particularly new tariffs imposed on countries like China, Mexico, and Canada.

Related: Bitcoin Panic Selling Costs New Investors $100M in 6 Weeks — Research

These trade tensions have fueled fears of a potential global economic slowdown, pushing investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold. At the same time, central banks in the US, China, and the UK have intensified their gold purchases, driving prices higher.

Countries Acquiring the Most Gold So Far in 2025. Source: GoldHub.com

In contrast, Bitcoin is reflecting broader risk-on market behavior. As of March 14, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite index reached 0.76 over the past year.

BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq Composite 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView

Has Bitcoin Price Topped?

The current breakdown between Bitcoin and gold mirrors previous historical trends, specifically those observed between March 2021 and March 2022, which preceded Bitcoin's last bear market. During that timeframe, the BTC/XAU ratio exhibited a bearish trend, where price increases were coupled with a declining relative strength index (RSI), indicating waning momentum.

BTC/XAU ratio two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

As a result, the BTC/XAU ratio first dipped toward a crucial support level represented by the 50-period two-week exponential moving average (EMA) before eventually declining by 60%.

This period of breakdown aligned with Bitcoin's 68% price correction against the US dollar.

BTC/USD two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, the BTC/XAU ratio appears to have completed a two-phase EMA retest, echoing the patterns noted in the 2021–2022 timeframe.

BTC/USD two-week performance chart (zoomed). Source: TradingView

With RSI revealing another bout of bearish divergence, momentum seems to be deteriorating, which raises the likelihood of further declines, especially if the ratio decisively falls below the 50-2W EMA support, roughly around 26 XAU.

This could spell trouble for Bitcoin, increasing its susceptibility to further price drops in dollar terms, with the 50-2W EMA below $65,000 identified as the next potential target for downside support.

BTC/USD 2W price performance chart. Source: TradingView

This level is approximately 40% below Bitcoin's record high of around $110,000 reached in January. Nonetheless, analysts from Nansen view such a decline as a potential "correction within a bull market," which might set the stage for a revival if the 50-2W EMA can hold as support. However, a decisive move below this EMA could signal a shift to bear market conditions.

If this Bitcoin-gold fractal continues to unfold, it could drag Bitcoin's downside target for 2025 towards the 200-period two-week EMA (the blue wave), potentially as low as $34,850.

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investments carry risks, and readers should carry out their own research before making decisions.

Bitcoin, Gold, ETF