Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin Retrace as Trump's Presidential Odds Decline

Recent developments in the cryptocurrency market have shown a significant retracement over the weekend. Leading cryptocurrencies experienced a downturn as the likelihood of Donald Trump winning the upcoming presidential election decreased sharply in prediction markets.

Cryptocurrency	Gains +/-	Price (Recorded at 8:30 p.m. EDT)
Bitcoin BTC/USD	-1.21%	$68,324.16
Ethereum ETH/USD	-1.93%	$2,438.68
Dogecoin DOGE/USD	-4.17%	$0.1519

What Happened: Bitcoin fell to a low of $67,500 early in the morning, marking a significant shift from the near-record highs it reached last week. By late evening, it managed to recover slightly to around $68,000.

The decline in cryptocurrency prices appears to correlate with Trump's decreasing odds of success in prediction markets, specifically on platforms like Polymarket, where his probability of winning has dropped from 66% on October 30 to 54% recently.

In the past 24 hours, there has been over $362 million in liquidations within the cryptocurrency sector, with $264 million of those being from leveraged long positions being wiped out. This reflects a volatile atmosphere as traders react to the shifting political landscape.

Interestingly, Bitcoin's Open Interest experienced a 1.45% rise over the last day. This increase in Open Interest, despite a price drop, indicates a rise in short selling activity, as over 61% of derivative traders holding positions were short on Bitcoin as indicated by the Long/Short Ratio.

Despite this pullback, market sentiment remains in the "Greed" category, according to the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, indicating that traders are still optimistic about the market overall.

Top Performers of the Day

The global cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at approximately $2.28 trillion, following a 1.05% decline over the last 24 hours. Some of the top gainers in the cryptocurrency sector include:

Cryptocurrency	Gains +/-	Price (Recorded at 8:30 p.m. EDT)
Immutable (IMX)	+2.63%	$1.10
Chainlink (LINK)	+0.98%	$156.80
Sui (SUI)	+0.56%	$1.92

In separate news, stock futures have also dipped during overnight trading on Sunday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures fell by 151 points, or 0.37% as of 7:35 p.m. EDT. Similarly, S&P 500 futures lost 0.19%, while Nasdaq 100 Futures dropped by 0.10%.

With the crucial presidential election scheduled for November 5 between Trump and Kamala Harris, investor sentiment remains cautious, primarily due to the uncertainty on betting markets and national polls.

Another significant event to watch is the upcoming Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on November 7. Traders are currently pricing in a potential rate drop of 25 basis points, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool.

Market Analyst Insights

According to CrediBULL Crypto, a well-known figure in cryptocurrency trading, Bitcoin appears to be on a constructive trajectory in the lower time frames, suggesting it may form a bottom that could lead to new highs. CrediBULL recently shared insights, stating that the yellow line on his chart reflects a pivotal retest level.

"Lower timeframes looking very constructive here- BTC looks to be forming a bottom here for that push to ATH."

In a contrasting view, popular cryptocurrency trader Nihilus expressed optimism about Ethereum, predicting a potential bull run post-election. He noted that while some believe Ethereum will decline due to liquidity levels, he suggests that the market maker holds a different perspective.

"Many people think ETH will drop due to the liquidity levels below, but the market maker doesn't think so. Last year around this time, nobody was saying ETH would reach $2,000, and now almost no one is saying that ETH is preparing for a bull season."

Photo by Igor Faun on Shutterstock

In summary, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing notable fluctuations as it navigates the uncertainties surrounding the upcoming presidential election and broader economic indicators.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin