Amgen Prepares for Q3 Earnings Report: What to Anticipate

Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) is set to announce its third-quarter 2024 earnings on October 30, just after the market closes. In the previous quarter, the company surpassed earnings expectations by 0.81%.

The consensus estimate among analysts for Amgen's sales and earnings stands at $8.51 billion and $5.11 per share.

Key Factors for Consideration

Amgen's product sales are projected to benefit from strong volume growth among its key medications, including Evenity, Repatha, Prolia, and Blincyto. Nonetheless, the success in sales volume is expected to be somewhat counterbalanced by increased competition from biosimilars and generic medications impacting its established drugs.

The current consensus estimates for the sales figures of Prolia, Repatha, Evenity, and Blincyto are $1.11 billion, $523 million, $406 million, and $274 million, respectively.

Our own forecasts for these specific drugs are slightly lower, with projections of $1.09 billion for Prolia, $502 million for Repatha, $381.9 million for Evenity, and $272.7 million for Blincyto.

Moreover, newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are anticipated to contribute positively to revenue growth, driven by an increase in the number of new patients. Tezspire, in particular, may see an uptick in volumes thanks to the launch of a self-administered, pre-filled single-use pen formulation.

Our estimates for Tezspire and Tavneos stand at $257.6 million and $91.4 million, respectively. Imdelltra (tarlatamab), which gained approval for previously treated advanced small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) in May 2024, is expected to report higher sales in the third quarter following its $12 million sales figure from the second quarter.

On the other hand, Enbrel is likely to show a decline in sales due to stagnant volume growth and ongoing price reductions. Additionally, sales of Otezla, which were weak in the earlier quarters of 2024, may or may not have improved in the latest quarter.

The consensus estimate for Otezla stands at $563 million, with our own estimate slightly higher at $588 million. For Enbrel, the consensus is $923 million, while we estimate it to be around $920.1 million.

Sales from Tepezza, Krystexxa, and Uplizna, which Amgen acquired in October 2023 as part of the Horizon acquisition, are expected to enhance overall sales.

However, it is important to note that lower revenues from oncology biosimilars such as Kanjinti and Mvasi, along with losses from older established products, could negatively affect top-line growth.

In the latter half of 2024, research and development expenses are expected to rise while operating margins are likely to dip compared to the first half of the year. Operating margins in the third quarter are forecasted to be lower than those observed in the second quarter, and total adjusted costs are anticipated to increase at a rate similar to the previous quarters.

Investors will be keen to hear updates on Amgen’s flagship pipeline candidate, MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor for obesity, which is increasingly gaining attention in the diabetes treatment sector.

Track Record of Earnings Surprises

Amgen has demonstrated strong performance recently, successfully exceeding earnings expectations in all four preceding quarters. The company averaged a four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.47%.

This year has seen Amgen's stock price rise by 11%, contrasting with an average decline of 3.1% within the broader industry.

Insights from Analysis Models

Current models indicate that predicting an earnings beat for Amgen this quarter is inconclusive. A positive performance in earnings is often supported by a favorable Earnings ESP combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold), but that is not the case for Amgen at this time.

Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP sits at -1.07%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $5.11 per share while the Most Accurate Estimate is $5.05 per share.

Zacks Rank: Amgen currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3.

Stocks to Consider

Below are a few pharmaceutical and biotech stocks that appear to have a favorable combination of factors for potential earnings beats this quarter:

Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.68% and a Zacks Rank of 3. Pfizer shares have increased by 0.1% this year. The company has exceeded earnings expectations in each of its last four quarters, with an average surprise of 69.82%. Pfizer will report its third-quarter results on October 29.

Regeneron (REGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.90% and a Zacks Rank of 3. Regeneron shares have risen by 9.6% this year, and it has reported earnings beats in three of the previous four quarters, averaging a surprise of 6.01%. Regeneron’s earnings release is scheduled for October 31.

Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% with a Zacks Rank of 3. Despite a year-to-date decline of 28.2%, Biogen has successfully beaten earnings estimates in three out of the previous four quarters, averaging a negative earnings surprise of 10.25%. Biogen is also set to report its third-quarter results on October 30.

Earnings, Amgen, Biotech