Tesla Faces Varied Projections for 2025 Delivery Growth Amid Policy Changes

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is currently grappling with contrasting forecasts regarding its delivery growth for the year 2025. While Wall Street analysts predict a positive trajectory, independent analysts have a more cautious approach, leading to a notable divide in expectations.

What’s the Situation? On one hand, Gary Black, the Managing Partner at The Future Fund LLC, mentioned that Wall Street anticipates Tesla will deliver approximately 2.07 million vehicles in fiscal 2025, reflecting a 16% growth compared to the previous year. On the other hand, independent forecaster Troy Teslike predicts a slight decline of about 1% in deliveries. This discrepancy stands in contrast to CEO Elon Musk‘s guidance, which suggested a growth rate between 20% and 30%, shared during the third-quarter earnings call.

Black noted that Tesla's performance in 2025 will depend on several crucial elements, including the success of the Model Y Juniper refresh, demand for the anticipated $30,000-$35,000 vehicle expected to debut in early 2024, and ongoing advancements in Full Self-Driving technology.

There are concerns that Wall Street may lower its delivery forecast from the initially projected 2.07 million units (16% year-over-year increase) as well as its earnings estimate of $3.24 per share (a 34% increase from the previous fiscal year). Such revisions might lead to Tesla’s stock price falling to the $350-$375 range, representing a potential decline of approximately 13%, regardless of management's optimism regarding the company’s autonomy goals.

Why This Is Significant: The uncertainty surrounding Tesla is compounded by the possibility of eliminating the $7,500 federal EV tax credit should the Trump administration proceed with such changes. According to Black, this policy shift could have a disproportionate impact on Tesla, given that U.S. sales account for 30-35% of its total volume, compared to just 4-5% for traditional automakers entering the EV market.

In contrast, analysts like Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities retain a more optimistic outlook. He recently increased Tesla's price target to $550, citing strong confidence in future demand and the company's capabilities in the autonomous driving sector. However, it’s important to note that Tesla’s earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have decreased significantly over the last year, by 39% and 45%, respectively.

The forthcoming earnings call is likely to be crucial, with analysts keenly observing fourth-quarter automotive gross margins, which are expected to reach 16.2% excluding regulatory credits. Previous results showed better-than-expected margins of 17.1%, yet CFO Vaibhav Taneja has warned of potential sustainability issues in the current economic climate.

Recent Stock Performance: As of the latest trading session, Tesla's stock closed at $406.58, experiencing a 1.41% decline on that day. In after-hours trading, the stock faced a further decrease of 0.27%. Notably, over the past year, Tesla's stock has surged by 121.87%, demonstrating significant growth despite current uncertainties.

Tesla, delivery, growth