Tesla's Recent Delivery Shortfall Sparks Debate on Autonomy and Robotics

Tesla Inc.'s latest delivery figures have caused a stir among analysts concerning the company's goals for autonomous driving and robotaxi services, leading to varied opinions about its future prospects.

Delivery Performance: Tesla reported delivering 495,570 vehicles in the fourth quarter. This number fell short of analysts' expectations of 506,763 and marked the company's first annual sales decline. Following the announcement, Tesla shares experienced a decline of 6% to close at $379.28.

Analysts' Reactions: Despite the delivery miss, some analysts remain optimistic about Tesla's long-term potential. James Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington-Altus, expressed confidence in Tesla’s ambitions for robots and autonomous vehicles, predicting a valuation of $2 trillion by 2025. He views the market’s reaction to the delivery miss as temporary noise.

In Contrast: Gordon Johnson, CEO of GLJ Research, offered a starkly different view. He criticized the prospects for Tesla’s Optimus robot, asserting that the company is lagging behind its competitors and projecting no sales of the robot by 2025. He controversially likened Tesla's current robot technology to outdated systems found in 1980s Chuck E. Cheese restaurants.

Market Insights: Gary Black from The Future Fund LLC highlighted some catalysts that could positively impact Tesla's growth, including the anticipated launch of a new $25,000-$30,000 vehicle in the first half of 2025. He also projected that Tesla could reach 8.1 million vehicle sales by 2030, achieving an 18% share of the global electric vehicle market. However, Black warned of potential risks, particularly the impact of losing the $7,500 EV tax credit, which previously led to significant sales drops in countries like France and Germany. According to Black, Tesla's fourth-quarter inventory reflected about 12 days of sales outstanding.

Current Market Landscape: With the reported 4Q deliveries, Tesla's full-year figure stood at 1,789,200, representing a minor decline of 1.1% compared to the previous year. Tesla's production in the fourth quarter was reported at 459,400 units.

Importance of 2025: Analysts underscore that the year 2025 will be crucial for Tesla's trajectory. Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management noted he anticipates a further stock pullback as the company approaches its next earnings report on January 29, yet he maintains that the shares are undervalued for long-term investors.

Future Price Projections: Tesla has a consensus price target of $284.62 based on evaluations from 33 analysts, with predictions ranging from a high of $515 to a low of $24.86. The most recent ratings from firms like Truist Securities, Baird, and Mizuho average $451.67, suggesting an upside potential of about 17.87%.

Conclusion: The delivery shortfall has reignited discussions regarding Tesla's capability in the autonomous sector, with divided perspectives on the company's future innovations and market position.

Tesla, delivery, analysis